Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) What’s up with the stock market? There was widespread outrage that the stock market didn’t go all the way [ … ]
Fed Truthers Are Wrong (Again)
Fed Truthers spent much of the last 10 years screaming about how QE would create hyperinflation. When that turned out to be wrong they pivoted and claimed the “inflation” was [ … ]
This Isn’t the Next Great Depression
In my recent research note on COVID I noted two potential scenarios: Short and painful. Basically, 6 months of lockdown with a modestly fast recovery (~15 months). Short-ish and painful. [ … ]
Pragmatic Thinking on COVID-19 – The Podcast
I joined Taylor Schulte from Define Financial to discuss the potential impact of COVID-19. We covered: The recent research paper I published. Two potential scenarios for COVID-19. Why this recession [ … ]
Pragmatic Thinking On…COVID-19
Given the severity of recent events I want to start writing more broadly and providing more in-depth research pieces. I’ll be starting to publish long form letters on topics of [ … ]
What Do you Do When the Shit Hits the Fan?
Full blown panic has set in. And no one knows when it will end. The uncertainty is like a daily replay of the worst moments of the financial crisis. Except [ … ]
It’s Time to Declare War on COVID-19
We’re going to see an economic contraction due to COVID-19. No one knows how deep it will be, but there are going to be sectors of the economy that experience [ … ]
Three Things I Think I Think – Corona Edition
Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) Is it different this time? I wrote in my book that it’s always different this time. No two economic [ … ]
A Crisis is the Worst Time to Learn Your Risk Tolerance
When I talk to new clients I always tell them “a crisis is the worst time to learn your risk tolerance”. Unfortunately, far too many people do exactly that. They [ … ]