I’ve never been a big fan of discretionary Fed policy. In my opinion the overnight rate is something that should be automated rather than being controlled by the subjective views [ … ]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) Are we on the verge of a recession? My theory about the COVID recession is that it wasn’t really [ … ]

The inflation story looked pretty clear to me before Russia invaded Ukraine. COVID had caused supply constraints and unemployment, we responded with $7T of government spending and so we ended [ … ]

The Russian stock market collapse has been jaw dropping with a near 80% loss in just a matter of weeks. Here are some important lessons we can all learn from [ … ]

I’m thinking mostly about the war in Ukraine, but here’s some other stuff to distract you (although this will be mostly about the war in Ukraine, sorry).  1) The limits [ … ]

I’ll break this down into three things, but it’s really just one thing – war.  1) Is it time to panic?  Here’s some good perspective of geopolitical conflicts and market [ … ]

The Total Bond Market is down 5.5% from its 2021 peak. The 10 year T-Note is down 10.7% from its 2020 high. But with the market pricing in 7 rate [ … ]

Since it’s Valentine’s Day I might as well spend some time expressing thanks for my one true love – good data. I spend an exorbitant amount time compiling data. And [ … ]

All I am thinking about is inflation these days. That’s it. 1) How about that CPI report? This morning’s CPI came in at 7.5%, hotter than expected. Not really that [ … ]