The key to understanding the COVID-19 recession was in understanding that it was an exogenous shock. This made it quite different from your standard recession in the sense that a [ … ]
Category: Forecasts
Is This The Hardest Investing Environment Ever?
I was on the Stansberry Investor Hour last week with Dan Ferris discussing the markets and the broader macro environment. My segment starts at 29:30. Topics discussed: The general macro [ … ]
Putting the Rise in Yields in Perspective
Is it just me or have there been a whole bunch of really scary sounding stories about rising interest rates in the last few months? While some of these worries [ … ]
How Worrisome is Future Inflation?
Recent economic data has bond yields jumping a little bit on the worry of higher future inflation. According to many this is the main concern behind the recent volatility in [ … ]
Do Bond Prices Have Momentum?
Here’s a strange thought from Jeff Gundlach, one of the world’s largest bond managers: “If you get above 3%, then it’s truly, truly game over for the ancient bond rally.” [ … ]
Beware of Extremist Bond Calls
I’ve spent way too much of my career cautioning investors about extremist positions. No, there wasn’t a bond bubble in 2010. No, the stock market wasn’t a bubble back in [ … ]
Price Compression & the Bond Market’s Trumper Tantrum
I wrote a controversial article a few months back about how I like to think of stocks as bonds. This wasn’t meant to be taken literally – I mean, I [ … ]
Revisiting Price Compression – Long Bond Edition
If you’ve read my paper Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction you know that I like to think of all financial instruments as if they’re bonds. This is helpful for multiple reasons: [ … ]
Thoughts on The Bond Debacle
Earlier this year I discussed the fairly dramatic change in my view on long-term government bonds. In essence, I said that bonds were irrationally priced given the low likelihood of [ … ]