We’ve seen plenty of conflicting data in recent weeks as we begin to see some weakness in the economy (right on time again!). In his latest note David Rosenberg highlights 12 indications that the economy is weaker than we think:
- Household employment (-206k in March, the steepest decline in well over a year).
- Real retail sales (-0.3% in March, down for the second time in three months).
- Manufacturing production (-0.1% and also down in two of the past three months).
- Core capex orders (-3.2% in February, and again, down in two of the past three months).
- Single-family housing starts (-4.8% in March and negative for two of the past three months as well.
- New home sales (-4.6% in February).
- Philly Fed for April down to 1.3 from 2.0.
- NY Fed Empire manufacturing index down to 3.05 from 9.24.
- NAHB Housing Market index down to a six-month low of 42 in April from 44.
- Conference Board consumer confidence index down to 59.7 in March from 68.
- University of Michigan consumer sentiment down to 72.3 for April from 78.6, the lowest in over a year.
- Conference Board leading indicators down 0.1% in March, first decline in seven months.
Source: Gluskin Sheff
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.
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