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ECRI GROWTH REBOUNDS A BIT

The ECRI’s growth gauge rebounded a bit this week, but may already be forecasting much tougher times ahead.  The ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index rose to its highest level in 6 weeks at 122.4 and the widely followed annual growth gauge improved to -9.8% from -10.3%.   Lakshman Achuthan says we need to worry about recession if the indicator turns down once again (despite having always forecasted a recession once breaching the -10% threshold):

“The WLI plummeted for two months through late June before flattening out and then rising to a nine-week high. But if it turns down once again, that would signal heightened recession danger.”

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