The ECRI continues to forecast a strong recovery. Although inflation has picked up, the ECRI’s inflation gauges are not showing signs of hyperinflation:
(Reuters) – A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a four-week high in the latest week while its yearly growth rate edged lower, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 128.8 in the week to Oct. 30, from a revised 128.3 the previous week, which the group originally reported as 128.4.
The index’s yearly growth rate fell to a five-week low of 26.3 percent from 26.9 percent last week. ECRI has recently reported annualized economic growth at all-time highs.
“While WLI growth has backed off from a record high, its continued strength promises a stronger U.S. economic recovery than most anticipate,” said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan.
The weekly index was up due to higher commodity prices, Achuthan said. The growth rate is derived from a four-week moving average, and occasionally moves inversely to the weekly index level.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to 91.7 in October from an upwardly revised 91.0 in September, which the group originally reported at 90.6.
“While the USFIG remains in a cyclical upturn, indicating a further dissipation of any deflation danger, we are not on the verge of an upsurge in U.S. inflation,” said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.
Source: ECRI
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.