This is the first honest assessment of earnings I have seen in a long time. Naturally, Goldman Sachs is ahead of the curve. They are now expecting $40 per share which is below my estimate of $45. This is a positive development. The lower the expectations we see the greater the likelihood of future outperformance. My expectation ratio continues to improve marginally, but the indicator leads the market by 2 or 3 quarters historically.
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Update (4:25PM) : Great chart here adding some perspective:
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Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.