I find it odd that we’re in the midst of the greatest housing bust in the history of the United States and not a single of the major homebuilders has gone bankrupt. Can we really be nearing the end of this crisis without losing a single of the major homebuilders? Or are the homebuilders, in their quest to survive, actually prolonging the problems at hand by increasing the supply of unsold homes as they finish projects/contracts that they know they probably can’t sell?
We saw a slight rise in months of supply in the most recent new homes sales. Months of supply now represent 12.9 – a staggering number considering how long this crisis has been going on.
I don’t think it is even remotely possible that housing is anywhere near a bottom considering the fact that no major homebuilder has gone bankrupt and the supply of new homes continues to accelerate.
The price decline in housing is likely to decelerate as the year progresses, but don’t be fooled. That doesn’t mean this won’t be a very protracted L-shaped recovery in the real estate market. The glut of housing supply could take years to work off. Although I believe the worst of the price declines are likely behind us the supply problems, job losses and lending problems are unlikely to alleviate the pressure in the coming years….
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.