Lakshman Achuthan was on CNBC this morning digging his heels in on his recession call. He says the macro data is actually getting worse. He says we’re seeing the same patterns that we always see heading into recessions. Specifically:
- GDP growth peaked in Q3 in 2010 and has flat lined since early 2011.
- Personal income growth has peaked.
- Broad sales growth has peaked.
- Industrial production has peaked.
Mr. Achuthan also points to the 21 month low in coincident indicators as a sign of impending recession (chart below). He says the economy is going to slip back into recession in the first half of 2012. So we won’t even know about the recession until August or so…just in time for the election….
Source: CNBC
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.
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