The OECD’s latest reading on leading indicators is showing a broad recovery. While the OECD’s track record is fairly strong it is also important to note that their leading indicators troughed in December 2001 during the last recession. Investors following this advice got hammered by the double dip recession in 2002. From the OECD:
OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for July 2009 show stronger signs of recovery in most of the OECD economies. Clear signals of recovery are now visible in all major seven economies, in particular in France and Italy, as well as in China, India and Russia. The signs from Brazil, where a trough is emerging, are also more encouraging than in last month’s assessment.
The CLI for the OECD area increased by 1.5 point in July 2009 and was 1.9 point lower than in July 2008. The CLI for the United States increased by 1.6 point in July, 4.3 points lower than a year ago. The Euro area’s CLI increased by 1.9 point in July, 1.4 point higher than a year ago. The CLI for Japan increased by 1.4 point in July, 6.6 points lower than a year ago.
The CLI for the United Kingdom increased by 1.3 point in July 2009 and was 1.2 point higher than a year ago. The CLI for Canada increased by 1.3 point in July, 2.2 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for France increased by 1.3 point in July, 4.6 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Germany increased by 2.3 points in July, 2.0 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for Italy increased by 2.7 points in July, 8.0 points higher than a year ago.
The CLI for China increased 1.5 point in July 2009, 0.7 point lower than a year ago. The CLI for India increased by 1.3 point in July, 1.1 point lower than a year ago. The CLI for Russia increased by 1.3 point in July, 13.6 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for Brazil increased by 0.2 point in July, 9.8 points lower than a year ago.
Source: OECD
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.