It’s interesting to note that the SmithBarney Panic/Euphoria model is pointing to a new bull market:
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Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.
Onlooker
I’m not sure how to react to this really. First of all I don’t know what the methodology is. Second of all it only goes back to ’87, encompassing for the most part the great bull market. I’m inclined to think that, just like a lot of other theses and models that are leading some to think that this rally is the start of a new bull, the conditions that are/will drive things going forward are much different than anything that existed in this period of time.
Show me how this model accurately predicted a recovery from a huge debt bubble crash and the consequent debt deflation and 300+ debt/GDP, etc., and maybe I’d give it some credibility here.
We’re certainly trying to do what we did in ’02 to bring a corpse of an economy to life, but this time it is different, in many regards.
Any thoughts TPC?
Guest
What would it look like for ’29-’32? (rhetorical question – I’m sure they don’t have data for then for this model).
larry
great great blog, but this chart means nothing, news in a vacuum
Cullen Roche
I don’t disagree at all. As far as timing the market in the near term there is not much to get from this chart, but if you have a longer timeframe there is an argument to be made for buying here based on this chart. I try to provide a broad investment perspective knowing that all people have different time frames, different asset focuses, etc.
Onlooker, that should clear up some of your thoughts as well….Thanks for kind words Larry.
Jacob
This looks like a bunch of voodoo to me.
Andrew
Good day,
The above indicator is very interesting.
Please advise where I can read more about it and may be get that for use ?
Thank you in advance,
Kind regads,
Andrew