Customize Consent Preferences

We use cookies to help you navigate efficiently and perform certain functions. You will find detailed information about all cookies under each consent category below.

The cookies that are categorized as "Necessary" are stored on your browser as they are essential for enabling the basic functionalities of the site. ... 

Always Active

Necessary cookies are required to enable the basic features of this site, such as providing secure log-in or adjusting your consent preferences. These cookies do not store any personally identifiable data.

No cookies to display.

Functional cookies help perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collecting feedback, and other third-party features.

No cookies to display.

Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics such as the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.

No cookies to display.

Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.

No cookies to display.

Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with customized advertisements based on the pages you visited previously and to analyze the effectiveness of the ad campaigns.

No cookies to display.

Loading...
Most Recent Stories

PARSING THE Z.1

By Annaly Capital Management:

On March 11, 2010, the Federal Reserve published the Z.1 Flow of Funds report for the 4th quarter of 2009.  This invaluable report contains important insights into the current private sector deleveraging trends now in place.  We look at some of these trends below.

Click Here to Enlarge Chart

First, we’ll run through some quick math.  After the dramatic run-up in household debt, from 67% of GDP in the first quarter of 2000 to 97% in the first quarter of 2009, a normalization process now seems to be underway (thanks in part to debt charge-offs, but we digress).  In order to return this ratio to the random round number of 80%, household debt would need to fall by nearly $2 trillion.  A drop to 60% of GDP, still above the long term average near 55%, would imply a reduction in the neighborhood of $4.9 trillion from the household balance sheet.  For context, since its peak in Q3 2008, household debt has fallen by just over $300 billion.  Experiencing a more meteoric rise than even the household, in terms of debt, has been the financial sector.  Not surprisingly, this portion of the economy is also delevering.  The drop in financial sector credit market debt since Q3 2008 (which was nearly its peak), has been roughly $1.3 trillion.

Offsetting these decreases has been the increase in US government debt, which has risen over $2 trillion in the same time period.  If debt drives GDP, it seems like we will be relying on Uncle Sam for now.

As a result, total credit market debt outstanding has only been falling very slowly, and appears to have just begun its descent.  It’s always hard to spot a secular trend in its infancy, but this one is certainly a leading candidate.

Click Here to Enlarge Chart