Early estimates for Q4 GDP are now ranging between 1-2%. “Muddle through” might be an overstatement….Here’s more details via the WSJ:
Macroeconomic Advisers chopped three-tenths of a percentage point from its fourth-quarter tracking estimate, and now expects 1.1% growth.
“Unexpected weakness in real [personal consumption expenditures] in October combined with weakness in personal income through October suggests less PCE growth in the fourth quarter,” the firm said.
Barclays Bank reduced its GDP tracking estimate by four-tenths of a point to 1.8%, but cautioned that a rebound in consumer spending could boost that later this year. “All in all, clearly a very soft start to consumption in 4Q,” Barclays said.
Via Forex Live:
J.P. Morgan, one of the more optimistic forecasters, put Q4 real GDP at +1.5%, 0.2 point lower, and indicated that only some of the weakness reflects special factors.
Economists at RBS said they are marking down their GDP estimates even if November spending rebounds. They estimate Q4 GDP is tracking +0.9%.
Goldman Sachs said Q4 GDP is tracking +1.3%.
CIBC lowered their Q4 GDP estimate to +1.2%.
Pierpont Securities economist Steve Stanley wrote that the weak October income/spending report means Q4 real consumption is running about +1.25% and that takes his Q4 real GDP estimate down to a mere +0.5%.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.
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