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RANDOM THOUGHTS BY TPC

  • How does anyone trade oil?  Down 4% yesterday, up 2.5% today.  How can one manage risk on such a volatile asset?  No wonder we see such high turnover in the trading pits….
  • Is this the greatest bull run of all time or are fund managers just playing catch-up into quarter end as they chase performance and pad their returns?
  • Retail sales fell sharply this week.  The ICSC reported a -1% weekly decline which likely represents the end of back-to-school.  The Redbook continues to trend in weak territory and came in at -2.6% this week.  This doesn’t bode well for September retail sales.

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  • The dollar is getting crushed again today.  So much for an orderly decline in the dollar.  More importantly, at what point do investors begin to seriously worry about the decline in the dollar?  Or even worse, what if we get a snap back rally?
  • Can anything stop this rally?