Ray Dalio’s Full Discussion at the DealBook Conference

Here’s the video from yesterday’s DealBook Conference.  I’ll repost the summary.  Video is attached below.

• Yields can’t go down anymore.
• Austerity is coming.
• Economy is running out of steam.
• QE is losing its efficacy.
• Rate turn probably finally coming late in 2013.
• The world is still in deleveraging.
• Sounding bearish: Risk premiums are likely to expand.
• It all comes down to interest rates. As an investor, all you’re doing is putting up a lump-sump payment for a future cash flow.
• In all deleveraging, you get through them by having an interest rate that’s lower than the growth rate.
• The big question is: When will the term structure of interest rates change? That’s the question to be worried about.
• Effects of QE diminishing as we do more rounds.. We’re facing austerity. And growth is flagging. This is an unprecedented risk the economy is facing. A slowdown with very little room to maneuver.
• The yield curve is certainly at the bottom. And so we’re squeezed on where they’ve gotten us in terms of.

Source: Dealbook via ValueWalk

Cullen Roche

Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.

He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.