Too bad it’s several years away….
Whoever dares to ask Dr. Doom- Nouriel Roubini – if the crisis has reached its bottom, if the worst is behind us, must also have the courage to hear his answer that can be summed up in two letters, an predictably “no”. According to the professor of economics at New York University, which now enjoys an undisputed reputation worldwide for having predicted well in advance and with an accurate analysis the crisis that has brought the world to its knees, the markets have yet to discount other bad news: he is of the view – in truth he is not the only – that the rise in stock markets in the last few days are a temporary “bear market rally” with more contraction ahead. However, in an intense presentation held yesterday in Milan at a meeting organized behind closed doors by Calyon Crédit Agricole, Dr. Doom gave a glimmer of hope: “there is possibly light at the end of the tunnel,” he said, although with close teeth. That bottoming out however requires a number of conditions: it requires governments and central banks of the countries most affected by the worst recession since the Great Depression of 1929 – the United States, European Union, China and Japan in the first place – “to adopt anti-crisis measures that very aggressive and front loaded”. What has been implemented so far, in terms of fiscal stimulus and monetary policies, including unconventional policies, is not enough. The severity of the crisis is such – “the world economy in danger of falling into the abyss of a near depression” to put it as Roubini says it – that resolving this crisis requires major policy efforts and timely and bold decisions by the governments.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.