The latest data from the CFTC showed little change in the bearish position taken on by small speculators. Based on the late December AAII sentiment data it appeared as though small investors were taking on a more complacent attitude heading into year-end, but the latest AAII data showed a more bearish reading that is in-line with the small speculators report from the CFTC. Small traders, who have been wrong at just about every step of the equity markets over the last year, remain net short. These traders were wrong again last week to the tune of 2.7%. These traders remain bearish heading into earnings and that appears like an awfully dangerous position in our opinion.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.