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WHAT’S ON TAP?

Cullen Roche -

For the week of June 6th (in conjunction with Econoday):

Monday –

Consumer Credit
[Report][Bullet3:00 PM ET

Consumer credit outstanding turned up $2.0 billion in March after contracting $6.2 billion in February. For the latest month, non-revolving credit, reflecting car sales, jumped $5.2 billion to offset another contraction in revolving credit – minus $3.2 billion.  Revolving credit may dip again in April as consumers are wary about maintaining debt. But non-revolving credit also could slow or decline as unit new motor vehicle sales fell 4.8 percent for the month.

Consumer credit Consensus Forecast for April 10: +$1.0 billion

Tuesday –

Redbook
[Bullet8:55 AM ET

Wednesday –

Wholesale Trade
[Bullet10:00 AM ET
Beige Book
[Bullet2:00 PM ET
The Beige Book being prepared for the June 22-23 FOMC meeting is released this afternoon.  While any given section of the Beige Book could move markets, after Friday’s disappointing employment report, traders will likely focus on comments on labor markets and whether businesses are more willing to hire or not.

Ben Bernanke Speaks
4:00 PM ET

Thursday –

The U.S. international trade gap for goods and services in March trade gap worsened to $40.4 billion from $39.4 billion in February. Imports and exports surged 3.1 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively, but the import component’s larger base meant more dollars went abroad at a faster pace for the month.  The latest worsening was primarily due to a spike in petroleum imports.  We could see a slowing in the red ink in April or even marginal improvement as seasonally adjusted spot prices for crude oil actually edged down about 0.8 percent for the month on average.  Still, inventory restocking and equipment investment could keep upward pressure on overall imports.
International trade balance Consensus Forecast for April 10: -$41.0 billion
Jobless Claims
[Report][djStar]8:30 AM ET

Initial jobless claims for the May 29 week came in at 453,000, showing only modest improvement from the prior week, dipping 10,000 from a revised 463,000 for the prior week.  The four-week average rose slightly for a third straight week to 459,000.  The trend has been flat for several weeks.

Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 6/5/10: 448,000

Treasury Budget
[Report][djStar]2:00 PM ET
The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report showed a worsening with April’s deficit coming in at $82.7 billion.  It was far above estimates reflecting weak individual tax receipts which are the government’s leading source of revenue.  On the spending side there is little change from last year with total fiscal-year-to-date outlays at $2.06 trillion. Looking ahead, the month of May typically shows a deficit for the month. Over the past 10 years, the average deficit for the month of May has been $76.6 billion and $100.3 billion over the past 5 years.  The May 2009 deficit came in at $189.7 billion.
Treasury Statement Consensus Forecast for May 10: -$140.0 billion
Money Supply
[Bullet4:30 PM ET

Friday –

Retail Sales
[Report][Star]8:30 AM ET

Retail sales for April came in at a healthy 0.4 percent advance, extending a robust string of gains this year.  This followed an upwardly revised 2.1 percent surge in March.  Ex-auto sales rose 0.4 percent in the latest month with ex-auto, ex-gasoline sales also posting a 0.4 percent gain.  Looking ahead, unit new motor vehicle sales rebounded 3.8 percent in May and should support retail sales.  However, gasoline prices have come down and chain store sales were soft in May.

Retail sales Consensus Forecast for May 10: +0.4 percent

Retail sales excluding motor vehicles Consensus Forecast for May 10: +0.2 percent

The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index for the final reading for May rose 3 tenths from mid-May to 73.6.  This is modestly above the April final of 72.2 and 69.5 for the mid- April figure—which is the year’s low. The two readings for May—first two weeks and the full month final—suggest notable improvement the second half of the month.  The survey is about evenly split for the number of respondents in the preliminary results and in the added numbers for the full survey.
Consumer sentiment Consensus Forecast for preliminary June 10: 74.0

Business inventories rose 0.4 percent in March, following a 0.5 percent gain in February.  Just as the recession was worsened by businesses letting their store shelves empty, the need to restock is adding to the strength of the recovery.  And there is plenty of restocking to do as overall inventories fell sharply with a consecutive 13-month decline starting in September 2008.  Inventories have now risen in five of the last six months.  We will probably see more of the same for April as we already have a notable gain in factory inventories for the month—up 0.5 percent.

Business inventories Consensus Forecast for April 10: +0.5 percent